Integrating Travel and Epidemic Models through Computational Analysis
TimeTuesday, July 246:30pm - 8:30pm
DescriptionHuman travel and movement have been identified as a leading factor in the spread of several infectious diseases. From a public health policy viewpoint, a risk map for potential local transmission of epidemic diseases would be ideal. For example, this risk map may identify regions in Florida that experience both a high Aedes mosquito prevalence and a large presence persons who have recently traveled to a Zika infected country. Travel models can be implemented to estimate such movement. Currently, current movement models have certain limitations in incorporating such travel data. For example, models, such as the gravity model and radiation model, do not accurately account for heterogeneity in destination choice. In this paper, our objective is to modify and improve the gravity model based on travel data of Florida counties, and then demonstrate the effectiveness of the model by linking it with an epidemic model epidemic model in developing risk maps.